Stocks pick up - Euro

Now we need to pick-up the stocks .
I don't consider stocks with dividend yield less than 2 % , P/E greater than 15 , Debt/ Equity greater than 0,5.
Then I consider the trend ( I don't buy stocks close to the top of the year ) and the portfolio composition ( I try to have stocks of all the sectors , underweighting those I see with worse next financial year . Therefore , if the best ones don't match with the equilibrium , I go downward ).
Keeping that in mind , the best ones seem to be :
- if you like ROA : Porsche , Nokia , Randstad , Shell , Vallourec , Eni , Salzgitter
- if like ROE : Porsche , Nokia , Bank of Ireland , Randstad , Ing , Irish Life and Permanent
Now is up to you and your strategies : how many stocks you want to buy etc.... , and if you want to take the risks ( very high at least until yearend) .
In the next days the other pick up lists .

Europe stocks - List at June end

The lists , by

ROA - Hennes & Mauriz , Antofagasta , Hays , Nobel Biocare , BHP Billiton , Drax , Next , Glaxo , Reckitt Benckiser , Boliden , Astrazeneca , Anglo American , Capita , Centrica , Amlin , Swisscom , OMV , BP , Diageo ,Statoil

ROE - Next , Hays , Drax , Hennes & Mauriz , Glaxo , Centrica , Capita , Nobel Biocare , BHP Billiton , Reckitt , Astrazeneca , Swisscom , Antofagasta , BT Group , Diageo , Amlin , National Grid , Scottish & Southern , Lloyds TSB , Boliden

USA Stocks - List at June end

The lists , by :

ROA - BP Prudhoe Bay , Terra Nitrogen , Southern Copper , Idearc , Microsoft , Ensco , Herbalife , Exxon , Seagate Technologies , Rockwelle Collins , Occidental , 3M , Nucor , Johnson & Johnson , Coca Cola , Teck Cominco , Chevron , Intel

ROE - BP Prudhoe , Terra , Herbalife , Southern Copper , Microsoft , Caterpillar ,Rockwell Collins , IBM , Exxon , Seagate Technologies , Sotheby's , 3M , Manitowoc , Coca Cola , Terex , Nucor , Ensco

Euro stocks - new list at end June

The lists , updated at yesterday (excluding stocks with dividend yield less than 2 :
ROA - Nokia , Porsche , Vallourec , Inditex , Tenaris , Bulgari , Shell , Belgacom , KPN , Unilever , Recordati , Randstad , Eni , Total , C&C Group , Corio , Buzzi , Mediaset , Dyckerhoff , Saras , Basf , Voestalpine , Vivendi , Philips , Man , Luxottica , Saipem , Wereldhave , Boskalis , Lvmh , Inbev Schneider , Kesko , Repsol , Wienerberger , Sanofi , france Telecom , Outokumpu , Italcementi , Lafarge.
ROE - Nokia , KPN , Porsche , Saipem , Unilever , Randstad , Vallourec , Belgacom , Inditex , Total , Boskalis , Shell , Man , Tenaris , BBVA , Bank of Ireland , ENI , ING , Saras , Thyssenkrupp , C&C Group , Buzzi , France Telecom , Basf , Voestalpine , Recordati , Dyckerhoff , Bulgari , Philips , RWE , Lufthansa , Corio , Mediaset , Luxottica , Lvmh , Carrefour , Repsol . Schneider , Inbev , Kesko

performances at June 1st 2008

From Jan 1st to Jun 1st , the performances of my portfolio , excluding dividends ,  were :

- 6,15 % vs -12,93% of DJEurostoxx50 , -9,76 of S&P500 , - 14,02 % of DJEuroselectDividend 30 .

stocks choices EURO (2)

One criterion for selection is P/E . Let's take 15 as the maximum allowed .

For ROA list we should take care of : 

SAP , Tenaris , Corio , Unilever , Philips , C&C , Reed , Wereldhave , Luxottica , Saipem ,  LVMH . By beginning of July we'll need to check again if they are all above 15 or not

Stocks choices Europe non EURO

We know we want to buy 5 of them in the year . Again let's limit the list to 15 by ROE and 15 by ROA .

ROA: Antofagasta , BHP Billiton , Drax , Glaxo , Reckitt , Astrazeneca , Boliden , Anglo American , Centrica , Swisscom , BP , Diageo , Amlin , Statoil , OMV .

ROE: Drax , Glaxo , Centrica , BHP Billiton , Antofagasta , Reckitt , Swisscom , Astrazeneca , Diageo , BT Group , National Grid , Amlin , Scottish & Southern , Lloyds TSB , Boliden .

Next times we'll find more more infos .

Stocks choices USD

We have to repeate the same exercise for USD stocks . 

We want to buy 5  stocks in the year and therefore can limit the sample to 15 stocks . 

Again in ROE  and ROA decreasing order .

ROE : BP Prudhoe , Boeing , Southern Copper , Freeport Mc Moran , Microsoft , Caterpillar , IBM , Exxon , 3M , Coca Cola , Dupont , Nucor , Pfizer , Ensco .

ROA : BP Prudhoe , Southern Copper , Idearc , Microsoft , Ensco , Exxon , Nucor , Coca Cola , Freeport Mc Moran , 3M , Johnson & Johnson , Teck Cominco , Intel , Chevron , Mattel.

Again , we need to have a closer look at each of them , and then wait until beginning of July .

Stocks choices Euro

July is near and we must start with the selection . Let's begin with the Euro ones . If we plan to buy 20 Euro stocks in the year then we should need to have at least 40 in a selection list .

Let's select them by ROA . I identified :

Nokia , Porsche , Vallourec , Sap , Tenaris , Belgacom , Bulgari , Shell , Recordati , Kpn , Eni , Corio , Unilever , Philips , Total , Mediaset , C&C Group , Buzzi , Reed , Saras , Arcelor , Basf , Voestalpine , Vivendi , Telefonica , Wereldhave , Luxottica , Saipem , Man , Lvmh , Schneider , Kesko , Wienerberger , Repsol , Lafarge , Sanofi , France Telecom , Outokumpu , Italcementi .

And now , let's do it by ROE , to avoid to loose the sectors I mentioned time ago .

Kpn , Porsche , Nokia , Telefonica , Vallourec , Belgacom , Reed , Unilever , Total , Tenaris , RWE , Sap, Man , Shell , Philips , Banco Popolare , Bank of Ireland , Carrefour , Bbva , Eni , Danone , Ing , Voestalpine , Saipem , Saras , Kesko , C&C Group , Recordati , Buzzi , France Telecom , Basf , Fortis , Deutsche Bank , Allied Irish Bank , Arcelor , Luxottica , Corio , Societe Generale , Terna .

For the final choice we should wait until the beginning of July , because the stocks prices could have fluctuations . In the meantime we should look closer at them to see if they have always been profitable , the dividends they distributed , the Debt/Equity ratio , the most recent news related to each of them .

Financial Times - Inflation , oil and impact on stocks prices

In this article and in The Economist (Double , double and oil trouble) we see that:

• ECB is not seen to cut interest rate until yearend
• oil demand for OECD coutries are falling since 2006
• China , seen as one of the most relevant oil buyer , really increased the demand in the first quarter of 2008 but to create oil stocks to avoid any shortages during Olympics
• in 2007 world demand increased only by 0,5%.

If oil prices would drop , inflationary pressure would diminish and then ECB could cut interest rate.

There is a correlation between rates and P/E : the lower the first , the higher the seconds .

Can we forecast growing stocks prices for the next year ?